Dow Tops 22,000 – Prepare For A Correction
As the stock market continues to soar, investors are asking if there is any end in sight.
Investment counselor Bob Seidenschwarz with the firm of S.G. Long and Company said on Tuesday, just as the Dow passed the 22,000 mark for the first time in history, that only a few major stocks are driving the market.
"We'll hit a new record of 22,000 today, but you've got to step back and ask yourself what that means," Seidenschwarz said. "You need to understand what is the depth and the breadth of the market that's leading it to this point. It's really just a handful of stocks that are priced to perfection. You look at Amazon, where it's currently selling at and its earnings, and it's priced to perfection for the next 30 years. so, are these valuations sustainable? My answer, and it's only my opinion after 30 years of doing this, my answer is that this is not sustainable, and that we are overdue, long overdue for a healthy pullback or correction in this market.
Seidenschwarz speculates on the numbers involved in such a correction.
"Over any type of cycle, it's normal to see a correction of 10 percent," said the S.G. Long representative. "When you get into a real bear market, then you're getting into a correction of 20 percent. I would say we're long overdue for a normal correction of that 10 to 15 percent."
At 22,000, a 10 percent loss would bring the Dow down by 2,200 points.
Seidenschwarz answers the question posed by first-time investors about whether now is a good time to invest in such a market.
"Number one, you must invest with a long-term view, and number two, using a premise called dollar-cost averaging," he said. "After you've done your homework, take a position, but don't commit 100 percent of the capital that you are thinking of investing. Hold some back, with the knowledge that you're going to see a pullback and have more opportunities to buy later on."